Yes Folks We Are Likely In A New Cycle

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My regular readers will likely be aware that I am a serious proponent of two things i) supply and demand and ii) real estate cycles. I’ve possibly beaten the first topic to death – those offering to sell their residential property (supply) and those wishing to buy these same commodities (demand). These two groups dictate the prices at which these properties change hands (remember, willing seller – willing buyer).

There has been much spoken about the why’s of these phenomena but to put it simply, less Sellers are selling (either withholding their offerings from the market or asking more than Buyers are willing to pay). Maybe Buyers are just less comfortable with the buying decision. This change in activity likely means that we are heading into a new cycle. Note, I say, “likely” as we do not yet have enough data to be able to make this statement with conviction. Lets see how eager the media will be to use ‘slump’, ‘plunge’ headlines in the upcoming weeks.

[Why did I choose to repeat myself? In some ways I believe that history HAS partially repeated itself. Remember, however, that no 2 cycles are ever identical. Or maybe we’re still in the same cycle? Imponderable of imponderables?]

September 2017 Numbers

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Now to the YTD figures as we leap into the final third of 2017.  North Van detached homes sold are 747 vs 1019 last year on a YTD basis, attached (t/hses) down 20% from last year and apartments down 13%. The detached median price is up 12% and inventory now down 1% from 2016. Median prices (t/hses) up 12% and up 27% for (apts). Inventory (t/hses) down 10% from Aug 31st 2016 and (apt) up 3% from last year for the same date.

In West Van, detached number of sales YTD for Aug 31st 2017 is down by 51% from last year at that time. Median price of what has sold is down 2% from last year and inventory now up 10% from Aug 31st 2016. On the condo side, attached (t/hses) sold by Aug 31st 2016 are down 21% from 2016. Active apartment listings at 3 are down by 1from last Aug 31st. Apartment sales reflect an 11% decrease in 2017 vs. 2016 – median price for (apts) sold increased by 21% for this period. Inventory (apts) up 33% over Aug 31st 2016.