The Significant Lull Of Late Summer

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There were NO increases in the YTD sales figures for ANY West Van home classification, and Yes the general price levels ARE showing a significant “leveling off”. Only North Van shows a modicum of stability.

I’ll hark back to my “whither sales and prices” discussion in a moment. 4/5 weeks ago we believed, and I quote, “clearly in the Condo market, both on the North Shore and also the majority of Greater Vancouver – supply is definitely no-where near satisfying demand”. Since then, when we saw that to be true, recent activity, or more precisely, a period of low activity has prevailed. This is nothing more than a Supply/Demand imbalance, otherwise known as a new cycle. So, is this where our market starts to subside? Not exactly, and what is meant by that is that “We are now in a lacklustre phase”.

In the same sense as the old saying “One swallow doth not a Summer make” it is also a truism that one ‘lack of lustre’ does not presage a Bubble Burst. We’ve been here before folks… the pre-Back to School four weeks with its last ‘run to the cottage’, last visit to grandma on Vancouver Island and the “Chicken Little type” last Bubble hurrah. Give it a further 4-5 weeks and we will experience a return to the demand uptick. Families again in the rehousing mode, first time buyers competing for their first homes and pre retirees looking for their long awaited, empty-nester castle.

August 2017 Numbers

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So, now to the figures for the 1st 7/12th of 2017, and the move solidly into the year’s back-haul. North Van detached homes sold are down 29% – 672 vs. 957 during last year, attached (t/hses) down 25% from 2016 and apartments down 19%. The detached median price up 35% and apts up 26%. Inventory (thses) down 9% from 2016 and (apt) down 2% from 2016.

In West Van, detached number of sales for 2017 is down by 7% from 2016. Median price of what has sold is down 10% from last year and inventory now up 5% from 2016. On the condo side, attached (t/hses) sold during 2017 are down 16% from 2016. Active listings at 9 as at month end are unchanged from 2016. Apartments sales reflect a 41% decrease by July 2017 vs. 2016 – Median price unavailable for both att and apts during July – (both being under 20 units). However the YTD median price sold, up by 24% over the 7mth period. Inventory of (apts) down 38%.