Yes Folks We Are Likely In A New Cycle

Those regular, or even occasional, readers of my monthly opinion piece will likely be aware that I am a serious proponent of two things i) supply and demand and ii) real estate cycles. I’ve possibly beaten the first topic to death – those offering to sell their residential property and those wishing to buy these same commodities. These two groups dictate the prices at which these properties change hands (remember, willing seller – willing buyer). When, in the first quarter of this year there was an excessive number of those wanting to buy and a relatively lesser number offering their properties for sale, the prices were rising and there was lots of competition to be the “lucky buyer”. A bull (or Sellers’) market prevailed. Then something started changing. Prices stopped their momentous climb and less properties were selling.

There has been much spoken about the why’s of these phenomena but to put it simply Sellers are not selling (either withholding their offerings from the market or asking more than buyers want to pay) or Buyers are just less confident of making the decision to buy. This change in activity likely means that we are heading into a new cycle. Note, I said “likely” as we do not yet have enough data to be able to make this statement with conviction. See how eager the press has been to base their ‘slump’, ‘plunge’ headlines on the August 2 to 15 – (two week!) sales stats, a ridiculous and some might say irresponsible act.

I’ve discussed the governmental (tax) action recently implemented and expressed an opinion thereon. Let us forget about the why’s and now concentrate on the data we will see emerging in the coming months before we rubber stamp the short term, medium term, long term direction of the market or in fact which cycle we are presently experiencing.

September 2016 Numbers

Now to the YTD figures as we head into the final third of 2016.  North Van detached homes sold are 1019 vs 1064 last year on a YTD basis, attached (t/hses) down 6% from last year and apartments up 12%. The detached median price is up 29% and inventory now up 33% from 2015. Median prices (t/hses) up 13% and up 5% for (apts). Inventory (t/hses) up 20% from Aug 31st 2015 and (apt) down 15% from last year for the same date.

In West Van, detached number of sales YTD for Aug 31st 2016 is down by 1% from last year at that time. Median price of what has sold is up 35% from last year and inventory now down 22% from Aug 31st 2015. On the condo side, attached (t/hses) sold by Aug 31st 2016 are down 23% from 2015. Active listings at (4) are equal to last year at Aug 31st. Apartments reflect a 29% increase in 2016 vs. 2015  – median price for (apts) sold increased by 8% for this period. Inventory (apts) down 52%.

September 2016 Podcast

North Shore Real Estate Radio

On an ongoing basis I pledge both my continued personalized service and a commitment to my reduced  business ecological “footprint”. A significant part is the radio (podcast) library which I’m continually creating. All North Vancouver Real Estate “Updates”, reports and information articles, checklists etc. will be archived on my website and available for download or desktop listening 24/7. You can access the information you seek when the spirit moves and not when someone pushes yet another flyer into your mailbox. I am most excited about these developments. Input as to the topics for “programming” you feel would be of interest is strongly sought. Please e-mail. This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or call me 604 988-7368 and 1-800-665-1455. Click on the “Podcast” Icon in the top right of this article to listen now.