Consider this a specific year where all the bad stuff happens in the first six months; and all the good stuff in the last six months.
The following year however is the total reverse good stuff from Jan to Jun and a poor market Jul to Dec. Can any conclusions drawn on those stats (comparing the good period with the bad and vice versa for the 2nd six months) be meaningful? 2009 vs. 2010 somewhat of a tough concept (not act ) to follow!
Truly folks, I try hard to make these figures speak to us in a logical way and, yes, often my head hurts! I am sticking to my usual format (stats-wise) but, please, don’t believe that this portrays (as my old Math professor used to say) an elegant proof .
For a minute I’ll depart from the strictly logical and make some gut level predictions (?). The two year roller coaster we currently inhabit is troublesome. Steadily climbing or steadily declining graphs are far more readable and enlightening. So here goes. Late 2009 and early 2010 (with ‘time off’ for the February Olympics) were generally bullish on the N/Shore. Then came the HST debacle coupled with international economic confusion (what I’ve heard called the Greek Disconnection ).Where does that put us right now this mid-year oasis? Well, inventory (homes on the market has steadily risen since about the 3rd month of this year (see figures below). A subtle change may well be occurring – July’s first 2 weeks have seen us drop below the higher levels of May and June. This, I’m feeling will herald a more positive trend leading us closer toward a more balanced North Shore market. I’m also of the belief that buyers will realize in the upcoming month or so that we are receding from the environment where their best (lower) purchases could have been made. There may still be a window to negotiate strongly with the help of an experienced Realtor and, remember, mortgage rates are still at a reasonable level. The dire predictions of rapidly climbing rates have not materialized indeed some lenders have dropped rates for some mortgage periods.
I will repeat what I’ve said before. Demand is dividing into two categories those making decisions to buy and take advantage of the opportunities out there and those choosing to move their demand to a future pent up position i.e. defer the buying decision. Still a window for those buyers who recognize this as an opportunity. Enjoy this delightful summer!
Again, visit my website to see and hear the new developments. I continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the go to site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.
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Re/Max Crest Realty
Vancouver – NorthShore
Local Phone: 604-988-7368