Why Do Cycles Have To Act Up For Us?

Why Do Cycles Have To Act Up For Us

Consider this   a specific year where all the bad stuff happens in the first six months; and all the good stuff in the last six months.

The following year however is the total reverse   good stuff from Jan to Jun and a poor market Jul to Dec. Can any conclusions drawn on those stats (comparing the good period with the bad and vice versa for the 2nd six months) be meaningful?  2009 vs. 2010   somewhat of a tough concept (not  act ) to follow!

Truly folks, I try hard to make these figures  speak to us  in a logical way and, yes, often my head hurts! I am sticking to my usual format (stats-wise) but, please, don’t believe that this portrays (as my old Math professor used to say)    an elegant proof .

For a minute I’ll depart from the strictly logical and make some gut level predictions (?). The two year roller coaster we currently inhabit is troublesome. Steadily climbing or steadily declining graphs are far more readable and enlightening. So here goes. Late 2009 and early 2010 (with ‘time off’ for the February Olympics) were generally bullish on the N/Shore. Then came the HST debacle coupled with international economic confusion (what I’ve heard called  the Greek Disconnection ).Where does that put us right now   this mid-year oasis? Well, inventory (homes on the market has steadily risen since about the 3rd month of this year (see figures below). A subtle change may well be occurring  – July’s first 2 weeks have seen us drop below the higher levels of May and June. This, I’m feeling will herald a more positive trend leading us closer toward a more balanced North Shore market. I’m also of the belief that buyers will realize in the upcoming month or so that we are receding from the environment where their best (lower) purchases could have been made. There may still be a window to negotiate strongly with the help of an experienced Realtor and, remember, mortgage rates are still at a reasonable level. The dire predictions of rapidly climbing rates have not materialized   indeed some lenders have dropped rates for some mortgage periods.

I will repeat what I’ve said before. Demand is dividing into two categories   those making decisions to buy and take advantage of the opportunities out there and those choosing to move their demand to a future  pent up  position i.e. defer the buying decision. Still a window for those buyers who recognize this as an opportunity. Enjoy this delightful summer!

Again, visit my website to see and  hear  the new developments.  I continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the  go to  site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this  update  – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

Alan

Alan Skinner
OnTopOfTheMarket.ca
Re/Max Crest Realty
Vancouver – NorthShore
http://www.AlanSkinner.com
Local Phone: 604-988-7368
TollFree: 1-800-665-1455
Fax: 604-985-3612

July 2010 Numbers

July 2010 Numbers

Now the June 2010 YTD figures for our North Shore. North Van detached homes sold are up by 3% from the same period
of the previous year, attached (t/hses) even with ’09 and apartments up by 8% from ’09. Detached average prices up 13% and inventory June 30th, up by 58%. Average prices up 11% (t/hse) and up 17% (apts). Inventory (t/hse) 22% higher than ’09 and (apt) up 38% from ’09. N/Van inventory at June 30th was significantly higher than 2009.

In West Van, detached number of sales is up by 28% from ’09.  Average price up by 24% and inventory June 30th up by 30% from ’09. On the condo side   attached (t/hses) sold are up from 2009 to 42 vs 16 units; average price up 44%. Active listings are up from June 30th (50 vs. 38).  Apartments reflect 88 sold vs. 78 during ’09   a 12% increase; with average price 25% higher than ’09 and active listings up 21% from June 30th 09.

I will repeat what I’ve said before. Demand is dividing into two categories   those making decisions to buy and take advantage of the opportunities out there and those choosing to move their demand to a future  pent up  position i.e. defer the buying decision. Still a window for those buyers who recognize this as an opportunity. Enjoy this delightful summer!

Again, visit my website to see and  hear  the new developments.  I continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the  go to  site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this  update  – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

Alan

Alan Skinner
OnTopOfTheMarket.ca
Re/Max Crest Realty
Vancouver – NorthShore
http://www.AlanSkinner.com
Local Phone: 604-988-7368
TollFree: 1-800-665-1455
Fax: 604-985-3612

Podcasts

North Shore Real Estate Radio

This year I pledge to continue my personalized service and further reduce my business ecological “footprint”. A new initiative is the radio (podcast) library which I am creating.

All North Vancouver Real Estate “Updates”, reports and information articles, checklists etc. will be archived on my website and available for download or desktop listening 24/7. You can access the information you seek when the spirit moves and not when someone pushes yet another flyer into your mailbox. I am most excited about these developments. Input as to the topics for “programming” you feel would be of interest is strongly sought. Please e-mail This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or call me 604 988-7368

Click on the “Launch Podcast Player” Icon in the top right of this website to listen now

North Vancouver Real Estate

Podcasts

Example Of Current North Shore Costs

Example Of Current North Shore Costs

An Estimation Of Closing Costs On The North Shore
Approximate Legal Fees and Disbursements           $900/1,200*Survey Certificate (if one is not available)       $350
Appraisal (if required by the lender)              $250
Inspection fee (not mandatory, but strongly        $300/450
recommended)Property Transfer Tax         1% of the first $200,000
plus         2% of the balance of the
purchase price

E.g:   A  $525,000 home would attract PTT at this level
1% of the first $200,000 – $2,000
2% of  $325,000 – 6,500  8,500

Other Fees – If your down payment is less than 25% of the purchase price of the home, the lender will require mortgage insurance from CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)/or other Mortgage insurers. The insurance premium, which is usually added to the mortgage, ranges from 0.5% of the mortgage amount to 3.25% depending on the size of down payment.

Property Tax Adjustment – In addition to the above costs, you may be required to have cash on hand to repay the vendors for taxes they have paid in advance (depending on possession date and how the vendors paid their taxes). A good rule of thumb is to have enough money on hand to pay six months of taxes. e.g. $500,000 home – approx
$2,400

Insurance – You will have to arrange insurance a few days before possession. The annual rate for a basic policy is approximately(detached)
$800/1,200

*These figures are an estimate only. They are subject to change and it is recommended that you consult your lawyer for confirmation of your total costs.

I have not tallied the above as you should determine which will apply to your purchase.

 

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