Where Has All The Inventory Gone

Where Has All The Inventory Gone

As with the anti-war song of the 60’s, the next line could well be “Gone to buyers, everyone”. Well, we know that “everyone” of the listings isn’t sold yet, but the reduction of units from June 30, 2008 to June 30, 2009 is certainly the result of sales to willing buyers.

The actual number of units available on the North Shore was 1,768 for ‘08 – at June 30 ’09 1,311. A drop of approximately 26%!  This, good people, is significant.

A quick comment on inventory as it applies to “homes for sale”. I watch the “expired” and “cancelled” listings fairly closely. I don’t however keep figures on these, nor could I say with conviction that “x % of all the inventory at a given time will expire or be cancelled”.  If we concede that inventory has a “core” of listings that will not sell in a current cycle it is tantamount to saying the 1,311 current unit on the market is more likely 1,200 or 1,100 or ….?

Some “sellers” do not fall into the category of “willing sellers” as their expectations are clearly above the market demand offerings of the “willing buyer”.  In our supply vs. demand model we know that a combination of falling supply and increasing (or even consistent) demand must lead to increasing prices.

On the “wither demand” question, I am not going to discuss this in any depth this Update but will comment further next month. I will say that I believe demand is currently healthy and will maintain that strength.

An interesting aside is the resurgence of sales in the upper end of the market. For this I have looked at collective North Shore detached home sales of listings over $1,500,000 occurring in the 1st four months of ’09 vs. those occurring in the last two months (May/June). The actual figures are – total sales Jan – April (4 mths) 63 vs. total sales May– June (2 mths) 55

Once more a strong indication of a  return of confidence.

Overall North Shore demand maintains its improving trend and with all inventories continuing to drop month over month, the seller continues to have a better chance of selling.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments.  Continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

Alan

July 09 Numbers

July 09 Numbers

Now to the YTD 2009 [first six months] vs. 2008 figures for our North Shore. North Van detached homes sold are down by less than 1% from last year, attached (t/homes) are now up by 13% and apartments down by 9% from ‘08.
Detached average prices down 8% and inventory June 30th, down by 37%. Average prices down 9% (t/hse) and down by 16% (apts). Inventory (t/hse) 29% lower than ‘08 and (apt) down from ‘08 by 28%.  As mentioned above, all N/Van inventory is lower than last year. Demand and the general level of sales are clearly increasing month by month.

In West Van, detached number of sales YTD has dropped, as of June 30th by 10% from ‘08. Average price down 21% and inventory June 30th down 20% from ‘08. On the condo side – attached (t/hses) sold has dropped to 11 vs. 31 units last year; average price down 29%.  Active listings are down from ‘08 by 20%.  Apartments sold reflect an 8% drop YTD vs ‘08; with average price down 20% and active listings up 28% from end of June ‘08.

Overall North Shore demand maintains its improving trend and with all inventories continuing to drop month over month, the seller continues to have a better chance of selling.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments.  Continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” – send a request now to 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

Alan

Podcasts

North Shore Real Estate Radio

This year I pledge to continue my personalized service and further reduce my business ecological “footprint”. A new initiative is the radio (podcast) library which I am creating.

All North Vancouver Real Estate “Updates”, reports and information articles, checklists etc. will be archived on my website and available for download or desktop listening 24/7. You can access the information you seek when the spirit moves and not when someone pushes yet another flyer into your mailbox. I am most excited about these developments. Input as to the topics for “programming” you feel would be of interest is strongly sought. Please e-mail This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or call me 604 988-7368

Click on the “Launch Podcast Player” Icon in the top right of this website to listen now

North Vancouver Real Estate

Podcasts

Example Of Current North Shore Costs

Example Of Current North Shore Costs

An Estimation Of Closing Costs On The North Shore
Approximate Legal Fees and Disbursements           $900/1,200*Survey Certificate (if one is not available)       $350
Appraisal (if required by the lender)              $250
Inspection fee (not mandatory, but strongly        $300/450
recommended)

Property Transfer Tax         1% of the first $200,000
plus         2% of the balance of the
purchase price

E.g:   A  $525,000 home would attract PTT at this level
1% of the first $200,000 – $2,000
2% of  $325,000 – 6,500  8,500

Other Fees – If your down payment is less than 25% of the purchase price of the home, the lender will require mortgage insurance from CMHC (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation)/or other Mortgage insurers. The insurance premium, which is usually added to the mortgage, ranges from 0.5% of the mortgage amount to 3.25% depending on the size of down payment.

Property Tax Adjustment – In addition to the above costs, you may be required to have cash on hand to repay the vendors for taxes they have paid in advance (depending on possession date and how the vendors paid their taxes). A good rule of thumb is to have enough money on hand to pay six months of taxes. e.g. $500,000 home – approx
$2,400

Insurance – You will have to arrange insurance a few days before possession. The annual rate for a basic policy is approximately(detached)
$800/1,200

*These figures are an estimate only. They are subject to change and it is recommended that you consult your lawyer for confirmation of your total costs.

I have not tallied the above as you should determine which will apply to your purchase.

 

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