Well, Where Are We?

Well, Where Are We?

Where indeed! Clearly 2009 thus far has, as the Vancouver Sun put it, “crawled along in January”. The number of Greater Vancouver sales is down 58% from the same month in 2008.

Here on the North Shore, sales for that period are down by almost 2/3rds – approximately 65%. This disparity with the “Greater” scenario, I believe, may well indicate that North Shore home owners are better able to “hold off” and that we have fewer “must sellers” than the Greater Vancouver picture portrays.

A CMHC spokesperson said, and I quote,  “ January is traditionally a slow sales month and can’t be used to gauge how the year will go, but we’re sort of well below [sales levels] we’ve seen in previous Januarys”. Yes, this is certainly the quietest Jan I’ve seen in the 17 plus years I have been involved in residential Real Estate.

BTW, I will continue my practice of showing the year to date sales figures, average prices and current inventory statistics but please remember that YTD is only Jan (’09 vs ’08 that is) – what one could regard as extremely “skinny stats” – see below.

To postulate a definitive picture of where we are is thus somewhat impossible based on limited sales (a shadow of last year) a significant proportion of which being the “must sells”.  Echoing the danger of placing too firm a “doom and gloom” rubber stamp on our condition is this quote from Adrienne Warren, an economist and real estate market specialist at Scotiabank – “This is not a U.S. – style bust caused by overbuilding, speculative buying and imprudent lending, but rather a cyclic slowdown accompanied by a valuation adjustment in several large centres where booming demand conditions and temporary supply constraints led to an overshooting in prices.”

Adequate to slightly high supply coupled with some of the lowest mortgage financing rates in the past few decades makes this an excellent time for “first time” and other buyers to get excellent prices from the “have to sell” group. The assistance of a good (read experienced) Realtor can be worth his or her weight in gold (note – that commodity is also up in value!).  I stress again that one should not balk at making offers at levels that may not excite the seller – remember that a sale only occurs when a willing seller transacts with a willing buyer and that “wishful thinkers” often become pragmatic sellers.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments.  Continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

North Vancouver Real Estate

February 09 Numbers

February 09 Numbers

Now to the Jan 2009 vs. 2008 picture on our North Shore [remember to heed the warnings above] – North Van detached homes sold down by 34 i.e.

12 vs 46 from last year, attached (t/homes) down 12 i.e. 4 vs 16 and apartments down by 40 i.e. 23 vs 63 from ‘08. Detached average prices -23% and inventory Jan 31st, up by 91%. Average prices down 4% (t/hse) and down by 27% (apts). Inventory (t/hse) 140% higher than ‘08 and (apt) up from ‘08 by 8%. These high inventory figures coupled with the low demand will certainly keep sales prices down.

In West Van, detached number of sales has dropped in Jan by 20 i.e. 22 vs 42 from ‘08. Average price down 12% and inventory Jan 31st up 46% over ‘08. On the condo side – attached (t/hses) sold dropped to 1 vs 2 units last Jan.; average price down 25% – the average price of the 2 sold last Jan was $903,500 vs the single $675,000 sale in Jan ‘09. Active listings are down from Jan ‘08 (27 vs. 41).

Apartments reflect 3 sold vs. 11 in the preceding Jan; with average price dramatically higher $1.66M vs $913,272 (nothing intelligent to be concluded here as obviously some high priced units changed hands!) and active listings up 62% from Jan ‘08. Overall North Shore demand continues to be sluggish with inventory higher on average than this time last year.  Bearing in mind the foregoing comments (paragraph 2) it is clear that the small sample – few sales – precludes any serious conclusions. As the year progresses, our YTD stats will be more and more meaningful.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments.  Continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

 

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

February 2010 Podcasts

February 2010 Numbers

NB – for the sake of consistency, I have always used “year to date” (YTD) figures, comparing them with YTD figures for the previous year.
It will be appreciated that YTD for 2010 thus far is the same as January’s results and therefore not as meaningful as those which will emerge when we have some (say 3+ or more) months “under our belts”.

With this in mind, here is the first month of 2010 results for the North Shore. North Van detached homes sold are up by 233% from the previous year, attached (t/hses) up by 525% and apartments up by 139% from ’09. Detached average prices up 22% and inventory Jan 31st, down by 34%. Average prices down 2% (t/hse) and up 37% (apts). Inventory (t/hse) 43% lower than ’09 and (apt) down from ’09 by 1%. All N/Van inventory is still lower than 2009. Demand is still strong and, unless a significant number of new properties are listed, this will continue to keep sale prices in the current range.

In West Van, detached number of sales is up by 18% from ’09.  Average price down by 8% and inventory Jan 31st down 16% from ’09. On the condo side – attached (t/hses) sold are up 600% from 2009 at 7 vs 1 unit; average price up 161%. Active listings are up from Jan ’09 (32 vs. 27).  Apartments reflect 9 sold vs. 3 during ’09 – a 200% increase; with average price 25% lower than ’09 for the month and active listings down 5% from Jan ’09.  Overall North Shore demand continues to be strong with inventory generally  lower than 2009.

2nd NB – comparing the dismal figures of early ’09 with the more substantial results of 2010 (especially only Jan vs. Jan) makes the market appear to have skyrocketed. Hold judgment ‘til we have more months and are over the Olympics.

Again, visit my website to see and “hear” the new developments.  I continue my commitment to keep you… www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca – the “go to” site for North Shore Real Estate analysis and jumping off point for FULL market listing information.

To join the group getting the e-mail version of this “update” – send a request now toalanskinner@shaw.ca and you’ll be assured receipt; phone me at (604) 988-7368 or visit www.OnTopOfTheMarket.ca

Alan

Podcasts

North Shore Real Estate Radio

This year I pledge to continue my personalized service and further reduce my business ecological “footprint”. A new initiative is the radio (podcast) library which I am creating.

All North Vancouver Real Estate “Updates”, reports and information articles, checklists etc. will be archived on my website and available for download or desktop listening 24/7. You can access the information you seek when the spirit moves and not when someone pushes yet another flyer into your mailbox. I am most excited about these developments. Input as to the topics for “programming” you feel would be of interest is strongly sought. Please e-mail This email address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or call me 604 988-7368

Click on the “Launch Podcast Player” Icon in the top right of this website to listen now

North Vancouver Real Estate

Podcasts